Friday, December 31, 2010

Monthly Update 12


STI, 31 December 2009: 2,897.62
STI, 31 December 2010: 3,190.04

Profit/Loss
Virtual Portfolio: +28.25%
Market Average: +10.09%

Thursday, December 23, 2010

The Intelligent Investor

The Intelligent Investor is an investment classic authored by Benjamin Graham, affectionately known as the Dean of Wall Street to many investors. To quote Adam Smith's Money Game,"The reason that Graham is the undisputed dean is that before him there was no profession and after him they began to call it that." Graham founded security analysis as a discipline and laid out several key investment principles which remain hugely relevant even till today.

Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha, endorsed the invesment classic by declaring "I read the first edition of this book early in 1950, when I was nineteen. I thought then it was by far the best book about investing ever written. I still think it is."

Similarly, I read the latest edition of this book in 2008 when I was nineteen and also thought that it was by far the best book about investing ever written. Unfortunately, the similarities end here, for I do not possess the intellectual prowess of Warren Buffett to comprehend the theories completely and neither have I read even a fraction of the number of investment books which he voraciously devoured over the years.

My objectives of writing this post (and subsequent posts) are twofold:

First, to distill the key elements of investing from this classic and

Second, to reinforce my understanding of the topics covered

Chapter 1

Investment vs Speculation: Results to Be Expected by the Intelligent Investor

1) An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis promises safety of principal and an adequate return.

2) The distinction between investment and speculation in common stocks has always been a useful one.

3) Risks are inseparable from the opportunities of profits they offer, and both of which must be allowed for in the investor's calculations.

4) Classification of two types of investors: Defensive and Aggressive

Comments

Why did Graham define investment as a form of operation? It is unsound to think of investing as purchasing shares of a single company, we must acknowledge the high degree of risk involved in holding just one stock. As the old adage goes, "Never put all your eggs in one basket." Adequate, rather than extreme diversification is essential to obtaining a favourable result. In addition, investing is not necessarily restricted to the purchase or sale of equities, there are many different forms of investment in the corporate universe, such as bonds, convertibles, real estate, forex, options and derivatives, etc.

Thorough analysis means the detailed evaluation of the quantitative and qualitative aspects of the prospective investment, with the aim to derive an estimation of the intrinsic value expressed in terms of a range of values, which is to be compared with the market price in formulating the appropriate course of action. It entails the careful scrutiny of annual reports released by the company and conducting elaborate analysis of industry outlook and managerial quality.

Safety of principal refers to the investor being reasonably confident that a substantial part of his principal is adequately protected under normal conditions and even when business climate takes a change for the worse. An example will be ensuring that the company can meet its interest requirements for extended periods of time to award its securities investment merit.

Adequate return depends on the type of investor you are instead of the degree of risk you are willing to run. Conventional wisdom states that risk and return are positively correlated, one must be willing to bear a higher level of risk in order to achieve a higher return on investment. On the contrary, Graham proposed that return is determined by the amount of intelligent effort that the investor is able and willing to devote in his investment endeavor.

First, Graham states that the investor should attain a sharp understanding of the differences between investment and speculation. There is nothing wrong with speculation, just that an overwhelming majority of speculators ended up with huge investment losses and terrible economic fates.

Investing does not guarantee that one can accumulate huge amounts of wealth, as reflected in what Graham wrote: There are no sure and easy paths to riches on Wall Street or anywhere else. What matters is the investor know what he is doing, and do the right thing. Risk and return coexist, while we must acknowledge the truth that it is impossible to eliminate ALL risks involved in an investment, it is within the investor's ability to minimise the risk level to maximise the potential return on investment.

Warren Buffett captures the essence by saying, "Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing." Incidentally we analysed the DBS High Notes 5 case study in my Business, Government and Society (BGS) course and came to the conclusion that not knowing the commitments and terms of DBS High Notes led to the purchase of unsound securities by retail investors at unattractive terms.

Does this imply that investors who lack the required knowledge are doomed to suffer neverending losses from their stockmarket participation? Fortunately for the vast majority, the answer is a firm NO. Investors who lack the qualities for successful investing should elect to play the role of a defensive investor. In this case, the defensive investor will opt for extreme diversification by periodically investing a fixed amount of money in an index fund with very low expenses.

This strategy is known as Dollar Cost Averaging, which enables the defensive investor to take advantage of market fluctuations by acquiring more shares when the price is low and vice versa, resulting in a satisfactory average price for his holdings. On the other hand, it is much more difficult to operate as an aggressive investor and I shall elaborate this concept in greater detail in my next post.

Wednesday, December 01, 2010

Monthly Update 11


STI, 31 December 2009: 2,897.62
STI, 1 Decmber 2010: 3,181.94
Profit/Loss
Virtual Portfolio: +22.10%
Market Average: +9.81%

Monday, November 01, 2010

Monthly Update 10


STI, 31 December 2009: 2,897.62
STI, 1 November 2010: 3,192.18

Profit/Loss
Virtual Portfolio: +18.42%
Market Average: +10.17%

Friday, October 01, 2010

Monthly Update 9


STI, 31 December 2009: 2,897.62
STI, 1 October 2010: 3130.90

Here's the result after adjusting for dividends:

Profit/Loss
Virtual Portfolio : +9.31%
Market Average: +8.05%

Thursday, September 02, 2010

Monthly Update 8


STI, 31 December2009: 2,897.62

STI, 1 September 2010: 2,982.83

Profit/Loss
Virtual Portfolio: +3.26%
Market Average: +2.94%

Outperform.

Monday, August 02, 2010

Monthly Update 7

Term 1 commences on 16th August, thus I am unsure if I can still monitor the markets and post monthly updates. Nevertheless, I will do my best to continue this effort, after all, the virtual portfolio is the application of the investment theories which I have learnt on my own during the 2 years of army.
Looking back, just realised I have included transaction costs but forgotten to factor in dividends!!! Here goes an extra few percentage points, will calculate them when I am free.


STI, 31 December 2009: 2,897.62
STI, 1 August 2010: 2,987.70

Profit/Loss
Virtual Portfolio: +5.09%
Market Average: +3.11%

Finally outperform the market again, but for how long? No one knows for sure.

Friday, July 02, 2010

Monthly Update 6

The update for the month of June was a tad late, due to my involvement in the SMU Freshmen Team Building (FTB) Camp. Imagine not checking the quotations of my securities holdings on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) website and conducting any analysis on company fundamentals for three days straight. Even though the Oracle of Omaha, Warren E. Buffett, "wouldn't mind if markets are closed for years", keeping track of the movement in stock prices can actually inculcate a nonchalant attitude towards stockmarket fluctuations.

After the longish introduction, I hereby present the update for June:


STI, 31 December 2009: 2,897.62
STI, 1 July 2010: 2,820.35

Profit/Loss
Virtual Portfolio: -3.27%
Market Average: -2.67%

This is my first underperforming month after beating the Straits Times Index (STI) consecutively for five months. As I am adopting a long-term business outlook for my portfolio holdings, there isn't really a cause for concern, unless the situation persists over a longer period of time. Meanwhile, it would be more rational and sensible to observe the recent market decline and if possible add to my holdings at more advantageous prices.

Saturday, June 05, 2010

Commentary on 'Warren Buffett' Post

My friend, Diana Goh Chern, has posted an e-mail writeup she received on Warren Buffett and I would like to add a few points so as to bring the message across in a clearer manner. Consumerism seems to be the order of day, especially among the increasingly affluent younger generation. Some people appear to have a special affinity for luxury goods, and while a healthy dose of consumption benefits the general economy through stimulating demand, excessive spending has its own pitfalls. Like what we all have studied in Economics, a government which runs budget deficits consistently may find itself faced with staggering amounts of long term debt that can threaten the workings of the economy (take Greece for example). Likewise for individuals, practicing fiscal prudence is the key to financial sustainability. Without any further delay, let us move on to her post.

1. He bought his first share at the age of 11 and he now regrets that he started too late!Things were very cheap that time, encourage your children to invest

The stock he bought was Cities Service Preferred, which plummeted shortly after he bought it. Nevertheless, he did not let the temporary plunge affect him and held on the stock before liquidating it for a small profit after the price rebounded. After which the stock rose to multiples of its original purchase price. Warren Buffett first learnt about patience from this experience. In addition, he bought the stock with his own money and his sister's, hence he had instilled a strong aversion to loss and sense of responsibility in taking care of other people's money.

2. He bought a small farm at age 14 with savings from delivering newspapers. One could have bought many things with little savings.
Encourage your children to start some kind of business


Warren Buffett was involved in other small businesses as well, which included pinball machines in barber shops (Wilson Coin Operated Company), collecting unwanted golf balls from golf courses and selling them for a small profit. His favourite book was '1,000 ways to make 1,000', which refers to making a million dollars. He pledged to become a millionaire by the age of 34 as well or he would jump down the tallest building in Omaha, where he lives in (he was one way before he reached 34).

3. He still lives in the same small 3-bedroom house in mid-town Omaha that he bought after he got married 50 years ago. He says that he has everything he needs in that house. His house does not have a wall or a fence. Don't buy more than what you really need and encourage your children to do and think the same.

His house looks like what a typical middle class family would stay in. The only addition was a racquet court, a spending which was insignificant compared to his wealth. He loves making money, and not hoarding wealth and hence he did not see any need to erect a wall or fence around his house. Interestingly, his lifestyle remains very much the same over the years, preferring to drink Cherry Coke and eat at McDonalds - not what you will expect from someone of extraordinary wealth. (Though not a very healthy diet haha)

4. He drives his own car everywhere and does not have a driver or security people around him. You are what you are.

He's brutally honest with his identity, even saying 'I buy expensive suits, they just look cheap on me.'

5. He never travels by private jet, although he owns the world's largest private jet company. Always think how you can accomplish things economically.

Buffett also abhors corporate CEOs who enjoy special privileges at the expense of the shareholders by flying first-class and indulging in other excesses. Thus he named his private jet 'The Indefensible' after he bought it, expecting criticisms from naysayers.

6. His company, Berkshire Hathaway, owns 63 companies. He writes only one letter to the CEOs of these companies, giving them goals for the year. He never holds meetings or calls them on a regular basis.Assign the right people to the right jobs.

Berkshire Hathaway is the only US public listed company which trades for over $100,000 a share, and the annual Berkshire shareholders meeting is dubbed as the 'Woodstock of Capitalism' where numerous investors flock to Omaha every year to listen to Buffett's (together with his Vice-Chairman Charlie Munger) teeming wisdom and quirky humour.
He actively seeks for managers who are honest, competent and shareholder-oriented.

7. He has given his CEOs only two rules. Rule 1, do not lose any of your shareholders' money. Rule 2 remember rule number 1.Set goals and make sure people focus on them.

Buffett has a deep sense of trust in his managers to do what's best for the company and gives them free rein in daily operations so that they can concentrate on running the company successfully, free from distractions. The managers align their interests with the shareholders' by having a substantial amount of their net worth in the company. Buffett himself has 99% of his net worth in Berkshire.
‘We eat our own cooking’

8. He does not socialize with the high society crowd. His past time after he gets home is to make himself some popcorn and watch television. Warren Buffet does not carry a cell phone, nor has a computer on his desk.Don't try to show off, just be yourself and do what you enjoy doing.

A famous technophobe, Buffett avoids investing in high tech companies simply because he feels that they are not within his circle of competence. What matters in investing is realistically defining what you don't know, rather than what you know. By following this principle he managed to avoid the Dot Com Bubble of the late 1990s and the resulting crash. Observing that he does not use computer or fanciful economic equations to analyze stocks, one should wonder the utility of the complex financial theories taught at Business schools today, especially Efficient Market Hypothesis.
'If markets are always efficient, I would be a bum on the street holding a tin cup.'

9. Bill Gates, the world's richest man met him for the first time only 5 years ago. Bill gates did not think he had anything in common with Warren Buffet. So he had scheduled his meeting for only half an hour. But when Gates met him, the meeting lasted for ten hours and Bill Gates became a devotee of Warren Buffet.

Gates is also well-known for his frugality and generosity, hence Buffett donated a staggering amount of his wealth to the Gates Foundation to serve worthy causes. The two men have many in common than most people thought. Despite Bill Gates the man himself explaining about computers and the Internet to Warren Buffett, the latter still stuck to his investment knitting. Warren later remarked that he would only be successful in the investment arena, whereas Gates can achieve similar success in virtually any field he chooses to embark on.
That's the former No.1 and No.2 world’s richest men for you.

In conclusion, Buffett loves his life simply because he is doing what he loves, which is allocating capital and establishing meaningful working relationships with his corporate managers.
‘I feel like tap dancing to work everyday.’

How many of us can face work with such a cheerful attitude everyday? We must discover what we truly love to do, work hard towards the goal and like Goh Chern said, appreciate the opportunity given and meanwhile enjoy the process. Buffett is a great role model, and I have learned much from him. I sincerely hope others can do so as well.

Tuesday, June 01, 2010

Monthly Update 5

Greetings to all, update for May:






STI, 31 December 2009: 2897.62
STI, 31 May 2010: 2752.60

Profit/Loss
Virtual Portfolio: -2.62%
Market Average: -5.00%

This too, shall pass.

Saturday, May 01, 2010

Montly Update 4

Hi to all, here's an update for the month of April:





STI, 31 December 2009: 2,897.62
STI, 30 April 2010: 2,974.61

Profit/Loss
Virtual Portfolio: +10.26%
Market Average: +2.66%

Although the virtual portfolio has outperformed the market average for four consecutive months, it it still too short a period to warrant any reliable conclusion with regards to the soundness of the common stock selection principles practised here. Nevertheless, sound principles have consistently produced generally sound results and hence the intelligent investor must assume that they will continue to do so.

Sunday, April 04, 2010

Monthly Update 3

Apologies for the late reply, here's an update for March:





STI, 31 December 2009: 2,897.62
STI, 1 April 2010: 2,943.02

Profit/Loss:
Virtual Portfolio: +10.24%
Market Average: +1.57%

Just for more info, the amount of absolute return is slightly above two thousand dollars since the virtual portfolio's inception on 31 December 2009. Pretty neat work, if you ask me. Still, I am always on the lookout for more bargain opportunities.

Sunday, February 28, 2010

Monthly Update 2

Here's an update for the month of February:







STI, 31 December 2009: 2,897.62
STI, 28 February 2010: 2,750.86

Profit/Loss
Virtual Portfolio: +0.32%
Market Average: -5.06%

So far so good, but always be prepared for the worst.

Sunday, January 31, 2010

Montly Update

How did my picks fare after the first month?

Here are the following results:







I will compare with Straits Times Index (STI) as the benchmark.

STI, 31 December 2009: 2897.62
STI, 31 January 2010: 2745.35

Profit/Loss
Virtual Portfolio: -0.64%
Market: -5.26%

That's about it.

Monday, January 04, 2010

Virtual Stock Portfolio

In order to apply the security analysis techniques which I have learnt, I have decided to construct a virtual portfolio on 31 Dec 09 and observe how my picks fare in 2010 and beyond. As I was unable to find a website which offers a virtual trading account for the Singapore Exchange, I suppose I will track my own performance using price quotes from the SGX website. The details are shown below:

Starting amount: S$100,000
Stocks selected: Capitaland, GoldenAgri, Keppel Corp, UOB-KayHian
Cash in Reserve: S$79,923.84
Amount in Equities: S$19,959.00
Transaction Costs: S$117.16
Total: S$100,000.00

This portfolio will be updated monthly until the author decides he has better things to do haha, so feel free to check for updates.
Disclaimer: The above information is for reference purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice to execute the respective trades. The author does not bear responsibility for any consequences on the reader's portfolio holdings if he or she chooses to act upon the information given. Thank you.